National Weather Service Releases Winter 2023-24 Forecast for KY

We have been discussing our winter weather predictions on the morning show for the past few weeks. Of course, our only signs are based on old wives' tales regarding nature.

Do the black bands on Woolly Worms, foggy August mornings, or Persimmon seeds make accurate assumptions about what kind of winter we will have? I'm not 100% sure, but if those three things are correct, we better get our shovels ready.

How Accurate Are Offical Weather Predictions?

Do you know who does have a more accurate prediction of what we should expect in the coming colder months? The National Weather Service. They have released their forecast for 2023-24. I must mention that there is always a chance these forecasts will change. Many factors go into determining future weather happenings including El Niño and La Niña. According to the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration, "El Niño and La Niña are climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that can affect weather worldwide."

Will Kentucky Temps be Frigid This Winter?

NOAA

According to the National Weather Service, Kentucky currently has "Equal Chances" meaning things could go either way. We have an equal chance of our temps being above, normal, or below average. Here are our previous high and low number averages according to Weatherspark.

If forecasters think all three possible temperature or precipitation outcomes (above-, near-, and below-average) are equally likely, or have no basis for selecting one category over the others, they issue an “equal chances” forecast. -NOAA

Weatherspark

And while we are at it, let's include our Hoosier friends.

weatherspark.com

Will Kentucky Have Lots of Snow This Winter?

NOAA

It looks like most of Kentucky will experience "equal chances" of normal snowfall while the Northern tip of the state has a 33-40% chance of below-normal levels. Here are our previous Kentucky snow averages in inches.

Weatherspark

This current projection will be updated in the next few weeks as more is learned about upcoming atmospheric observations. The National Weather Service did note in the most recent report that "A continuation for El Niño is extremely likely this Fall and Winter, with over a 95 percent chance through January, February, March (JFM) 2024."

Source: National Weather Service