Indiana’s Winter Weather Could Be Significantly Impacted by La Niña
A La Niña watch is currently in effect and is expected to have an impact on Indiana weather this winter. Here's what we know.
Early Predictions
In spring or 2023, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), issued an El Niño Watch for the Northern Hemisphere, including the Midwest. It was the first El Niño watch in five years, but now, the tides have changed so to speak. Now here we are in August of 2024, and the NOAA says we're under a La Niña watch.
What the Heck is El Niño and La El Niña?
In Spanish, El Niño means "little boy" and it is the name given to the warm water phase of the climate patterns referred to as "El Niño-Southern Oscillation" or ENSO. ENSO literally impacts the weather around the globe. Likewise, La Niña, or "little girl" in Spanish, is the name given to the cold water phase on ENSO. Both El Niño and La Niña have an incredible impact on our weather here at home in Indiana.
El Niño Has Ended and La Niña Is On the Way
El Niño ended in May and we entered into what is known as an ENSO-Neutral pattern in July. However, now that August has arrived they have issued an La Niña watch which means favorable conditions for the weather pattern to develop in the following six months - and now, here we are looking ahead at what this means for our winter months in Indiana.
A La Niña watch is currently in effect and is favored to develop during August-September-October (ASO; 70% chance) and persist into the Northern Hemisphere winter 2024-25 (79% chance) during November-December-January (NDJ). As summer wanes and winter approaches, the overall temperature and precipitation patterns across the contiguous U.S. (CONUS) and Alaska are expected to transition to those associated with typical La Niña impacts. - NOAA
READ MORE: How The Color of a Caterpillar Can Predict Winter Weather
How La Niña Can Impact Indiana
La Niña is generally associated with some very specific changes in the winter months in North America that can result in increased storms, higher than average precipitation, and an increase in cold-air throughout central portion of the continent. Meanwhile, the southern portion of North America is likely to see fewer storms and less precipitation.
Accompanying these conditions, large portions of central North America experience increased storminess, increased precipitation, and an increased frequency of significant cold-air outbreaks, while the southern states experiences less storminess and precipitation. - NOAA
No Two La Niña Events Are the Same But They Do Have Some Things in Common
The NOAA points out that while no two La Niña events are ever identical, there are some occurrences that are pretty typical with this type of weather pattern. Here in the Ohio River Valley area, they say we can expect to see that increase in precipitation we were just talking about, calling it "wetter-than-average."
While no two La Niña events are alike, there are some general tendencies that emerge. For instance, the polar jet stream is typically farther south than usual. This pattern brings enhanced chances for below-normal temperatures to the upper Midwest, particularly in the more western areas. The Ohio River Valley also sees enhanced chances of wetter-than-normal conditions, particularly for late winter. Warmer or drier weather events can still occur, but those events may be milder and less frequent across the region. - NOAA
Before You Rush to Buy the Ice Melt and Snow Shovel
Of course, even with the best technologies, it can be difficult to accurately predict the weather this far out. It may be wise to hold off on purchasing the ice melt and new snow shovel. Or you could always try to predict the weather, the old fashioned way - with a persimmon seed.
READ MORE: How to Predict Winter Weather with a Persimmon Seed
READ MORE: Can Squirrel Behavior Predict Snowfall Amounts in Indiana?
[Source: NOAA]
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