Old Farmer’s Almanac Releases Illinois Winter Predictions
Sure, you could "go with the science" and check the long-term winter forecasts for Illinois at any number of weather/science websites, but where's the fun in that?
Why not go with a publication that's been around since it was founded in 1792 by David Young, a former schoolteacher from New Hampshire. His goal was to create a yearly publication that would give people weather forecasts, planting charts, and general advice for rural life.
The Old Farmer's Almanac (OFA) claims an 80 percent accuracy rating. Last year, the overall accuracy rating was nearly 90 percent. The OFA still makes its weather predictions using a secret formula that has never been revealed, and many people check it religiously each year.
I Know That It Seems Early To Be Looking Ahead To What Winter Has In Store For Illinois, But The Cold And Snow Will Be Here Before You Know It.
It's understandable that you probably haven't been thinking ahead to winter here in Illinois, especially since we've been seeing more than our share of 90 degree-plus weather and high humidity since summer began.
With that in mind, here are the dates and times for the first day of fall and the first day of winter (just so you can drop leaf and snowflake icons on your calendar):
- First day of fall: Sunday, September 22, 2025 at 10:44pm CDT.
- First day of winter: Sunday, December 21, 2025 at 4:03pm CST.
Look, fall is fall in Illinois. Lots of beautiful changing leaves, some crisp nights, high school football games, etc. There's not a lot of variance from year to year except for the changing leaves which are always spectacular--just more spectacular some years than others.
Wintertime, especially in Northern Illinois, can be wildly different from one year to the next, so let's see what one of the famous weather-predicting almanacs has to say about what we'll face during the winter of 2025-26.
The Two Most Famous Almanacs Claim To Be Around Eighty Percent Accurate With Their Weather Predictions--But Are They?
Long-range forecasts from the Farmers’ Almanac are based on a proprietary mix of solar activity, celestial events, and historical patterns. While the publication claims 80–85% accuracy, independent studies indicate their predictions are closer to 50% accuracy—only slightly better than a coin flip.
The Farmers' Almanac's weekly predictions have 52% accuracy, according to a 2010 University of Illinois study, which is basically the same odds as flipping a coin. However, these predictions are made weekly and for two years in advance, without the use of climatological data like La Nina or El Nino patterns.
Hold on, I know what you're thinking. Why should we put even the smallest bit of trust in weather prognostications that predict the weather months from now? Because...umm...well...because that's what you do, that's why. You don't question it when Uncle Lou says his knee is telling him that a storm's coming, do you? Of course not. That would be wrong. And rude.
Here's What The Farmer's Almanac Says We're Going To Get This Winter In Illinois
The Farmers’ Almanac categorizes the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and North Central states (which includes Illinois) as poised for a “classic winter wonderland”. That means very cold and snowy conditions are expected, with extended cold snaps in mid-January and mid-February.
Their forecast, called “Chill, Snow, Repeat,” calls for dramatic swings in temperature, followed by snow, a brief warm-up, and then another return of cold. Northern Illinois may even experience winter-like conditions before the official start of winter, possibly beginning as early as September, though the season officially starts with the December 21st solstice.
The Almanac is also predicting frequent snowstorms across the Great Lakes region, including Illinois, as part of its national winter outlook.
The Old Farmer's Almanac has Illinois' winter being on the drier and milder side.